Water SeiryuuTier 2
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1343
· median 1343
· range 1343–1343
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Seiryuu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
